The Gold Coast is Australia’s 6th largest population centre, having overtaken Canberra, Newcastle and Wollongong in the last 20 years. Detailed Gold Coast projections (PDF) by respected KPMG demographer Bernard Salt have the Gold Coast maintaining this ranking with population growing to 0.9m by 2031 and 1.2m by 2050. The combined region of Brisbane/Gold Coast will be the 3rd largest centre behind greater Sydney and greater Melbourne. Brisbane/Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast will by 2050 be as big as Sydney/Newcastle/Wollongong is today – summary article (PDF).
Queensland government broad hectare land profile (pdf) showing the location of larger land parcels (minimum 2,500 m²) to house future population, broken down into: higher density (over 20 dwellings/ha); urban residential (between 3 and 20 dw/ha); & rural residential (up to 3 dw/ha), and the timeframe for development.
The SEQ Regional Plan 2017 (SEQRP) anticipates an increase in Gold Coast population by 2041 of 351k which will require an additional 159k dwellings. Approximately 20% (31k) of these new dwellings are anticipated to be located in the Gold Coast’s ‘expansion’ area (greenfield area). The Queensland Government Land Supply and Development Monitoring (LSDM) Reports of 2018 & 2019 identified sufficient land to accommodate up to 45k new dwellings in the greenfield area up to 2041. However, Zone Planning Group (in collaboration with BIOME Consulting, Matusik Property Insights & Zone Landscape Architecture) have prepared a comprehensive report (pdf – 71 pages 3.5MB) which assesses whether this is realistic – in contrast to LSDM, this report identifies that the Gold Coast greenfield area has only:
- a realistic capacity of only 23k dwellings able to be constructed by 2041;
- 11k dwellings with a medium to high chance of being developed by 2041; and
- based on current and past take-up rates, this equates to only approximately 4.6 years of dwelling supply.
One of the authors of the report (link) feels that “price escalation is likely” and “I have done enough similar work across this region in recent years to say, and with a high degree of confidence, that similar findings apply to most council areas across the south east corner of Queensland”.
Gold Coast house price growth over the past year (proxied by Brisbane, dates and methodologies differ between research houses) are shown below:
Price growth charts over a longer time period are shown by CoreLogic RPData Housing Overview (PDF)
For property price projections:
- HTW-Property-Market-Indicators (PDF)
- BIS Oxford Economics (PDF)
- Residex (PDF) forecast Brisbane dwelling prices to rise over the 5 years to end 2020 by +5% pa for houses and +2% pa for units
In the long term, the Qld government project the Gold Coast population (PDF) to increase continuously from 0.5 million in 2011 to between 0.7 million and 0.9 million in 2031.
Review Brisbane property indicators (link)
Review Australian economic property indicators (link) related to property.