Terry Ryder of Hotspotting advises in Why is QLD a good place to invest in – Terry Ryder Hotspotting – Sep 2018 (PDF) that there are growing signs of improvement in Queensland’s key economic indicators that drive real estate markets forward:
- The Queensland economy is showing increasing signs of improvement, having led the nation on jobs creation in 2017.
- The resources sector, a big element in the state economy, is showing increasing signs of revival.
- The state is now the national leader on net gains in population from interstate migration, a feature that has traditionally made Queensland strong but which has been lacking in recent years.
- But potentially the biggest factor is the $50 billion in spending on Queensland infrastructure over the next four years, announced in the State Budget in June. Infrastructure activity is a major catalyst for economic activity, jobs creation and demand for residential real estate, as we have witnessed in Sydney in recent years.
- Investors disenchanted by the prices and yields in Sydney and Melbourne are increasingly turning their attention to the Brisbane and wider Queensland property markets.
- Brisbane appeals as a city that offers good value. Its prices are roughly half those in Sydney and its rental yields are much higher.
Brisbane house price growth over the past year (dates and methodologies differ between research houses) are shown below:
Price growth charts over a longer time period are shown by CoreLogic Housing Chartpack (PDF)
SEQ Plan & Economic Profile – Oliver Hume – projections to 2018 (PDF) project strong economic growth and continuing undersupply of housing
Dimasi (PDF) provide a Qld and Brisbane overview.
Urbis (PDF) provides a Brisbane market outlook.
FDI Intelligence – a unit of The Financial Times, which is considered by Global Capital Markets Survey (link) to be the world’s most important business read, and by the Worldwide Professional Investment Community audience (link) as the most credible publication in reporting financial and economic issues – issues a report on the top Global Cities of the Future: the Top 25 overall; and the Top 10 by various criteria. The most recent fDI Global Cities of the Future report (PDF) has Brisbane ranked 4th for Strategy, and 10th for Human Capital & Lifestyle.
Forecasts from respected economic forecaster BIS Oxford Economics (PDF) for the three years to 2021 are that:
- Net Overseas Migration is expected to move from about +35k pa (10 year average) to +32k pa
- Net Interstate Migration is expected to move from about +12k pa (10 year average) to +26k pa
- Therefore, total Net Migration is expected to move from about +47k pa to +58k pa
- Taking into account natural population growth, Underlying Demand for dwellings is expected to be about +44k pa
- Dwelling Commencements for 2017/18 are running at about +41k pa
- Dwelling Stock Deficiency/Surplus (as a % annual underlying demand) is expected to move from a surplus of around 27% to a deficiency of around 13%
Property price projections – all major forecasters are positive about Brisbane:
Some specific projections follow:
- JLL-Australia-Brisbane-Housing-Market-Overview (PDF)
- JLL-Australia-Brisbane-Apartment-Market-Commentary (PDF)
- CoreLogic & Moodys Analytics (PDF)
- Domain January 2019 (link)
- SQM forecasts (PDF)
- HTW-Property-Market-Indicators (PDF)
- BIS-Oxford-Economics-Forecasts (PDF) for the next three years
- NAB House Price Forecasts (PDF)
- Matusik Property Clock (PDF)
In the long term, the ABS project Brisbane’s population to increase continuously from 2.2 million at June 2012, to between 3.8 million and 5.6 million in 2061. For Qld, the projections are a population increase from 4.6million to between 7.9 and 11.1million. By 2050, the combined region of Brisbane/Gold Coast will be the 3rd largest centre behind greater Sydney and greater Melbourne. Brisbane/Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast will by 2050 be as big as Sydney/Newcastle/Wollongong is today – summary article (PDF).
National & International economic indicators related to property
Review national and international economic indicators (link) related to property.
Review detailed property data & charts (link).