In September 2020, Knight Frank (link) projected that: “In Brisbane quicker recovery from the pandemic than expected, combined with a tight apartment supply pipeline, has seen the Brisbane market emerge in a very strong position for 2021 and beyond. Coming off an extended period of low price growth Brisbane’s affordability is the best capital city side by side with Perth in the short to medium term.”
Brisbane house price growth over the past year (dates and methodologies differ between research houses) are shown below:
Price growth charts over a longer time period are shown by CoreLogic Housing Chartpack (PDF)
SEQ Plan & Economic Profile – Oliver Hume – projections to 2018 (PDF) project strong economic growth and continuing undersupply of housing
Dimasi (PDF) provide a Qld and Brisbane overview.
Urbis (PDF) provides a Brisbane market outlook.
FDI Intelligence – a unit of The Financial Times, which is considered by Global Capital Markets Survey (link) to be the world’s most important business read, and by the Worldwide Professional Investment Community audience (link) as the most credible publication in reporting financial and economic issues – issues a report on the top Global Cities of the Future: the Top 25 overall; and the Top 10 by various criteria. The most recent fDI Global Cities of the Future report (PDF) has Brisbane ranked 4th for Strategy, and 10th for Human Capital & Lifestyle.
Supply & Demand
Forecasts from respected economic forecaster BIS Oxford Economics (PDF) for the three years to 2021 are that:
- Net Overseas Migration is expected to move from about +35k pa (10 year average) to +32k pa
- Net Interstate Migration is expected to move from about +12k pa (10 year average) to +26k pa
- Therefore, total Net Migration is expected to move from about +47k pa to +58k pa
- Taking into account natural population growth, Underlying Demand for dwellings is expected to be about +44k pa
- Dwelling Commencements for 2017/18 are running at about +41k pa
- Dwelling Stock Deficiency/Surplus (as a % annual underlying demand) is expected to move from a surplus of around 27% to a deficiency of around 13%
Property price projections – all major forecasters are positive about Brisbane:
Some specific projections follow:
- JLL-Australia-Brisbane-Housing-Market-Overview (PDF)
- JLL-Australia-Brisbane-Apartment-Market-Commentary (PDF)
- CoreLogic & Moodys Analytics (PDF)
- Domain January 2019 (link)
- SQM forecasts (PDF)
- HTW-Property-Market-Indicators (PDF)
- BIS-Oxford-Economics-Forecasts (PDF) for the next three years
- NAB House Price Forecasts (PDF)
- Matusik Property Clock (PDF)
In the long term, the ABS project Brisbane’s population to increase continuously from 2.2 million at June 2012, to between 3.8 million and 5.6 million in 2061. For Qld, the projections are a population increase from 4.6million to between 7.9 and 11.1million. By 2050, the combined region of Brisbane/Gold Coast will be the 3rd largest centre behind greater Sydney and greater Melbourne. Brisbane/Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast will by 2050 be as big as Sydney/Newcastle/Wollongong is today – summary article (PDF).
National & International economic indicators related to property
Review national and international economic indicators (link) related to property.
Review detailed property data & charts (link).