Where is Each Region in the Property Cycle?

Herron Todd White (HTW) is the largest independent property valuation and advisory group in Australia, with over 400 staff across 40 offices.  They are independent because they only conduct valuations - they neither sell nor develop property.
HTW's December 2007 "This Month in Review" consisted of a 42 page report assessing the position of each residential region in the property cycle, ranging from:
1. Bottom of market
2. Start of recovery
3. Rising market
4. Peak of market
5. Declining market
Investors aim to purchase in phases 2 (start of recovery) and 3 (rising market).
HTW’s view is that most capitals have either peaked (Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin, Canberra) or are in decline (Perth). 
Therefore, investors should focus on:

  • Sydney (start of recovery), and
  • Brisbane & Adelaide (rising market)

In Sydney, properties close to the CBD are now performing well - respected forecaster Residex predicts annual price growth over the next five and eight years of 7-9% for house and land and a bit less for units.  We feel that properties in the mortgage belt in the west of Sydney are best avoided at the moment. 
In Queensland, HTW also note that acquisition makes good sense in some regional areas, such as house and land packages in the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast – Residex five and eight year price growth projections for house & land are 6% for the Gold Coast and 8-10% for the Sunshine Coast and the Caboolture shire immediately to its south.  We believe that Queensland units should be avoided - Residex predicts annual unit price growth over the next five and eight years of only 0-2%. 

If you have potential interest in detailed research reports on well-priced new or off-the-plan investment property around $400k (some a bit more, some a bit less) with rental yield at 5% or better, located close to the Sydney CBD (units), or on the Gold Coast or Sunshine Coasts (4 bedroom house & land packages and terrace houses) please:

 


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